Economics

Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms, by Adam Richardson; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder; Tugrul Vehbi

Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms, by Adam Richardson; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder; Tugrul Vehbi https://ift.tt/2OBSg4E Author Abstract This paper analyses the real-time nowcasting performance of machine learning algorithms estimated on New Zealand data. Using a large set of real-time quarterly macroeconomic indicators, we train a range of popular machine learning algorithms and nowcast real GDP growth for each quarter over the 2009Q1-2018Q1 period. We compare the predictive accuracy of these nowcasts with that of other traditional univariate and multivariate statistical models. We find that the machine learning algorithms outperform the traditional statistical models. Moreover, combining the individual […]

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An Economist’s Guide to Climate Change Science

An Economist’s Guide to Climate Change Science https://ift.tt/2qfPY1l An Economist’s Guide to Climate Change Science NBER Working Paper No. 25189 Issued in October 2018 NBER Program(s):Development Economics, Environment and Energy Economics, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Health Economics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies, Public Economics, Political Economy, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Climate change management is a global challenge that requires social science as much as it requires natural science. We provide a brief introduction to the physical science of climate change, written to provide essential background for economists and other social scientists. We also highlight some key areas in which […]

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Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Financial Policies

Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Financial Policies https://ift.tt/2JQtr45 Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Financial Policies NBER Working Paper No. 25222 Issued in November 2018 NBER Program(s):Development Economics, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978-1997 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998-2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government’s financial policies, defined as a set of credit policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of these financial policies throughout the three phases and provide the […]

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The Expansionary Lower Bound: Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma

The Expansionary Lower Bound: Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma https://ift.tt/2JzTsVk The Expansionary Lower Bound: Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma Author/Editor: Paolo Cavallino ; Damiano Sandri Publication Date: November 2, 2018 Electronic Access: Free Full Text. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Summary: We provide […]

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Firm R&D Investment and Export Market Exposure

Firm R&D Investment and Export Market Exposure https://ift.tt/2Qls2Fl Firm R&D Investment and Export Market Exposure NBER Working Paper No. 25228 Issued in November 2018 NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship In this article we study differences in the returns to R&D investment between firms that sell in international markets and firms that only sell in the domestic market. We use German firm-level data from the high-tech manufacturing sector to estimate a dynamic structural model of a firm’s decision to invest in R&D and use it to measure the difference in expected long-run benefit from R&D investment for […]

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The Exorbitant Tax Privilege

The Exorbitant Tax Privilege https://ift.tt/2qGh5me The Exorbitant Tax Privilege NBER Working Paper No. 24983 Issued in September 2018 NBER Program(s):Development of the American Economy, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Public Economics We estimate and attempt to explain the evolution of the taxes paid by U.S. multinationals on their foreign profits since 1966. In the oil sector, taxes paid to oil-producing States have been contained, allowing U.S. firms to earn high after-tax returns. Foreign taxes fell abruptly after the first Gulf War. In sectors other than oil, the effective foreign tax rate has fallen by half since the late 1990s. Almost half […]

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Legal clauses and sovereign bond pricing in the euro area

Legal clauses and sovereign bond pricing in the euro area https://ift.tt/2PctLA8 Sovereign bond pricing in the euro area: When legal clauses matter The discussion on sovereign debt restructuring in the euro area has recently focused on legal considerations, in particular on whether the legal framework should be reformed to make restructurings more ‘viable’, for example via new collective action clauses (Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2018, Tabellini 2018, Pisani-Ferry and Zettelmeyer 2018).  Should sovereign debts in Europe be ‘hard’ or ‘easy’ to restructure? The fundamental trade-off behind this question is well understood, at least theoretically (e.g. Bolton and Jeanne 2007, 2009, Pitchford […]

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Euro area reform: An anatomy of the debate | Bruegel

Euro area reform: An anatomy of the debate | Bruegel https://ift.tt/2RvRPdU A year ago, a group of 14 French and German economists joined forces with the aim of forging common proposals for euro area reforms. Their report gave rise to a lively discussion among officials and academics. This Policy Insight summarises the group’s proposals and also addresses some of the points raised in a subsequent VoxEU.org debate on the topic. The euro is nearly 20 years old – ten quiet years followed by ten tumultuous ones. The end of the first decade was marked by glowing, oddly uncritical reviews. Ten years […]

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Longer-Run Effects of Anti-Poverty Policies on Disadvantaged Neighborhoods

Longer-Run Effects of Anti-Poverty Policies on Disadvantaged Neighborhoods https://ift.tt/2QAaCVm Longer-Run Effects of Anti-Poverty Policies on Disadvantaged Neighborhoods NBER Working Paper No. 25231 Issued in November 2018 NBER Program(s):Labor Studies, Public Economics We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare on key economic indicators of economic self-sufficiency in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Our strongest findings are twofold. First, the longer-run effects of the EITC are to increase employment and to reduce poverty and public assistance, as long as we rely on national as well as state variation in EITC policy. Second, tighter welfare time limits also […]

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The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your P’s, Q’s and K’s

The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your P’s, Q’s and K’s https://ift.tt/2qsP3KU The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your P’s, Q’s and K’s NBER Working Paper No. 25188 Issued in October 2018 NBER Program(s):Development of the American Economy, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Cloud computing—computing done on an off-site network of resources accessed through the Internet—is revolutionizing how computing services are used. However, because cloud is so new and it largely is an intermediate input to other industries, it is difficult to track in the U.S. statistical system. Moreover, there is a paucity of systematic information on […]

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