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Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms, by Adam Richardson; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder; Tugrul Vehbi

November 12, 2018 Bilal 0

Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms, by Adam Richardson; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder; Tugrul Vehbi https://ift.tt/2OBSg4E Author Abstract This paper analyses the real-time nowcasting performance of machine learning algorithms estimated on New Zealand data. Using a large set of real-time quarterly macroeconomic indicators, we train a range of popular machine learning algorithms and nowcast real GDP growth for each quarter over the 2009Q1-2018Q1 period. We compare the predictive accuracy of these nowcasts with that of other traditional univariate and multivariate statistical models. We find that the machine learning algorithms outperform the traditional statistical models. Moreover, combining the individual […]

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Finance and Econ From the Web: Night lights measure growth, why are rates so low, are bankers liberals or conservatives….

September 19, 2018 Bilal 0

I thought I’d have a separate “Best Of the Web” devoted to economics and finance. Below I’ve found 30 articles and academic papers on macro and finance. Some are easy reads and others are denser, but I’ve summarised each one. Oh, if you come across anything interesting that I’ve  missed, then flag it to me and I’ll include it in my next list.  Enjoy! North and South Korea at night , 1992 vs 2008

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Overcoming the hurdles to Italian Growth

September 4, 2018 Bilal 0

Overcoming the hurdles to Italian Growth https://ift.tt/2NOpm1L This opinion piece was also published in La Repubblica As the Italian government is contemplating its budgetary policy, it is useful to look at other countries’ experiences in how to deal with high debt levels. A salient example is Belgium as my colleague André Sapir is pointing out in an upcoming paper for Bruegel. Belgium […] This opinion piece was also published in La Repubblica As the Italian government is contemplating its budgetary policy, it is useful to look at other countries’ experiences in how to deal with high debt levels. A salient […]

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Don’t Get Into a Knife Fight with Larry Summers

September 4, 2018 Bilal 0

Don’t Get Into a Knife Fight with Larry Summers https://ift.tt/2wAYkUC Larry Summers is not happy with Joseph Stiglitz’s piece The Myth of Secular Stagnation, which argues that the idea of secular stagnation as put forward by Summers and others was little more than a mask for poor economic policy and performance under the Obama administration. Those responsible for managing the 2008 recovery (the same individuals bearing culpability for the under-regulation of the economy in its pre-crisis days, to whom President Barack Obama inexplicably turned to fix what they had helped break) found the idea of secular stagnation attractive, because it […]

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Setting the Record Straight on Secular Stagnation

September 4, 2018 Bilal 0

Setting the Record Straight on Secular Stagnation https://ift.tt/2Q0tSeQ Echoing conservatives like John Taylor, the Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz recently suggested that the concept of secular stagnation was a fatalistic doctrine invented to provide an excuse for poor economic performance during the Obama years. This is simply not right. CAMBRIDGE – Joseph Stiglitz recently dismissed the relevance of secular stagnation to the American economy, and in the process attacked (without naming me) my work in the administrations of Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. I am not a disinterested observer, but this is not the first time that I find […]

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The Myth of Secular Stagnation | by Joseph E. Stiglitz

September 3, 2018 Bilal 0

The Myth of Secular Stagnation | by Joseph E. Stiglitz https://ift.tt/2BRnKT2 Those responsible for managing the 2008 recovery found the idea of secular stagnation attractive, because it explained their failures to achieve a quick, robust recovery. So, as the economy languished, a concept born during the Great Depression of the 1930s was revived. NEW YORK – In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some economists argued that the United States, and perhaps the global economy, was suffering from “secular stagnation,” an idea first conceived in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Economies had always recovered from downturns. But the […]

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The 1 vs 3 Model of Quick Recessions vs Slow Recoveries

September 3, 2018 Bilal 0

The 1 vs 3 Model of Quick Recessions vs Slow Recoveries https://ift.tt/2wrVEIX Business cycles are not symmetric; if you flipped the time-series data upside-down the fluctuations would look different. Recessions are usually quick; recoveries are usually slow. And Milton Friedman’s "Plucking Model" seems to fit the data: big falls in economic activity are usually followed by big increases; but big increases are not usually followed by big falls. It’s as if there were some "normal" level of economic activity, and the economy sometimes falls below "normal" temporarily, by greater or lesser amounts, but rarely rises much above "normal". Recessions are […]

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Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation — by Gauti B. Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre, Lawrence H. Summers

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation — by Gauti B. Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre, Lawrence H. Summers https://ift.tt/2OtrmMH Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation NBER Working Paper No. 24902 Issued in August 2018 NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited […]

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Measuring global economic activity

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

Measuring global economic activity https://ift.tt/2KWm6if Measuring the level of global economic activity is of key interest. But the measures we have on variables like industrial production don’t cover all countries and are only available with a significant lag. Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian suggested in an influential paper published in 2009 that we could get a useful timely indicator by looking at average shipping costs. I recently had a chance to look into the details of how that series is constructed and have some suggested improvements. Kilian’s basic idea is that changes in world economic activity are the primary driver of […]

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PIMCO Asset Allocation Outlook 2018 | Late-Cycle Investing | PIMCO

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

PIMCO Asset Allocation Outlook 2018 | Late-Cycle Investing | PIMCO https://ift.tt/2oDOgpT Executive Summary At this stage in the cycle, investors should consider inflation risk, market dispersion, recession risk and other key factors we discuss in our midyear update. We identify five opportunities for the near term as well as provide updated asset allocation views and positioning. Investment opportunities, from an asset allocation view, include shorter-maturity bonds, gold, and large cap equities. There are ample signs of change in the wind for investors. The Federal Reserve is raising short-term interest rates, and U.S. inflation is at target for the first time […]