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PacNet #62 – The 115th Congress Aligns with the Trump Administration in Targeting China

September 3, 2018 Bilal 0

PacNet #62 – The 115th Congress Aligns with the Trump Administration in Targeting China https://ift.tt/2NcgNAr After a slow start in 2017, reflecting preoccupations with health care and tax reform, the 115th Congress has demonstrated remarkable activism on China policy in 2018. This Congress has broken the mold of past practice where the US Congress more often than not since the normalization of US relations with China four decades ago has served as a brake and obstacle impeding US initiatives in dealing with China. That pattern saw repeated congressional resistance to administration efforts to advance US engagement with China at the […]

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Expect ‘deep structural change’ in China-US ties, senior adviser says

September 3, 2018 Bilal 0

Expect ‘deep structural change’ in China-US ties, senior adviser says https://ift.tt/2N1u7rn A senior Chinese government adviser says he expects “deep structural change” in the relationship between the world’s two largest economies after the trade war, with the US treating China as a key rival. Long Guoqiang, vice-president of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, also called for “strategic confidence” and “strategic patience” in China in the face of mounting pressure from tariffs and other punitive trade measures imposed by Washington. The senior adviser made the remarks in a commentary on Wednesday in People’s Daily, mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party. […]

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A Survey of the Empirical Literature on U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy (2016)

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2016/2016-021.pdf Abstract: This paper reviews and critically evaluates the empirical literature on the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policy on both financial markets and the real economy. In order to understand how such policies could work, we also briefly review the literature on the theory of such policies. We show that event studies provide very strong evidence that U.S. unconventional policy announcements have strongly influenced international bond yields, exchange rates, and equity prices in the desired manner. In addition, such studies indicate that such policies curtailed market perceptions of extreme events. Calibrated modeling and vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises strongly suggest […]

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When Did the FOMC Begin Targeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.517.961&rep=rep1&type=pdf Abstract In October 1982 the FOMC deemphasized M1 and moved to what is commonly referred to as a borrowed reserves operating procedure. Sometime thereafter the FOMC switched to a funds rate targeting procedure but never formally announced the change. Given the close correspondence between a borrowed reserves operating procedure and a funds rate targeting procedure, Thornton (1988) suggested that the FOMC went immediately to a funds rate targeting procedure. Others date the switch to the funds rate procedure later. Meulendyke (1998) suggests the switch came in late 1987, while others suggest the change occurred later. This paper reviews the […]

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Underemployment in the US and Europe — by David N.F. Bell, David G. Blanchflower

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

Underemployment in the US and Europe — by David N.F. Bell, David G. Blanchflower https://ift.tt/2OR2b6H Underemployment in the US and Europe NBER Working Paper No. 24927 Issued in August 2018 NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics, Labor Studies, Monetary Economics Large numbers of part-time workers around the world, both those who choose to be part-time and those who are there involuntarily and would prefer a full-time job report they want more hours. Full-timers who say they want to change their hours mostly say they want to reduce them. When recession hit in most countries the number of hours of those who […]

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U.S. Bear & Bull Markets Since 1926

September 2, 2018 Bilal 0

U.S. Bear & Bull Markets Since 1926 https://ift.tt/2vO5dl4 ‘);//–> } U.S. Bear & Bull Markets Since 1926 August 17, 2018 9:00am by Barry Ritholtz click for ginormous graphic Source: First Trust   I really like this graphic, via First Trust, showing the history of bull and bear markets in the US. The ongoing debate about the length of bull and bear markets — is this the longest bull market ever? — never seems to be resolved — I have a different question to ask . . . More on this later today.   Previously: History of U.S. Bear & Bull […]

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Germany’s Foreign Minister Just Proposed a Way to Skirt U.S. Sanctions

September 1, 2018 Bilal 0

Germany’s Foreign Minister Just Proposed a Way to Skirt U.S. Sanctions https://ift.tt/2wiLny2 If Maas’s remarks looked like the germ of an idea that would carve out a more independent European foreign policy, the message from the German Chancellery was: Not so fast. Steffen Seibert, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman, characterized Maas’s op-ed as his “personal article,” rather than as the government’s position. Still, he told reporters that Maas had also “presented observations that are preoccupying the government.” Merkel, speaking to reporters alongside the visiting Angolan president in Berlin, said Maas’s op-ed “expresses in other words what I have said, that the […]