Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation — by Gauti B. Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre, Lawrence H. Summers
Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by an effective lower bound on nominal rates as took place during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis.
You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format
from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24902
via National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers https://ift.tt/1j89DVY
August 13, 2018 at 02:17PM https://ift.tt/1aNsfVT https://ift.tt/1j89DVY https://ift.tt/2OtrmMH